You've built something incredible in Hillsborough County. Whether you're serving craft cocktails in South Tampa, running a family-style spot in Brandon, or feeding the fast-growing Riverview crowd, you've put your blood, sweat, and equity into this restaurant.
But here's the unfiltered truth that most successful restaurant owners aren't told until it's too late: the conditions that make your restaurant sellable, and valuable, don't last forever.
Right now, in early 2026, the Tampa Bay restaurant market is at a crossroads. Some neighborhoods (Hyde Park, South Tampa) are still commanding premium valuations. Population growth is strong. Consumer spending is steady. But underneath the surface, there are tectonic shifts happening that could make 2027–2028 a much tougher time to exit.
If you've been thinking about selling your Hillsborough County restaurant, this might be your window. Here are the 5 warning signs that tell you it's time to move.
Before we get into the warning signs, let’s make one thing crystal clear:
These market insights (and how we help owners sell) apply to profitable restaurants.
At Lobo Business Sales LLC, we specialize in restaurants earning $200K+ in annual net profit. That’s the lane where qualified buyers show up, financing options exist, and valuations start to get interesting.
At a bare minimum, though, a restaurant needs to clear $100K in NET earnings to be truly viable in today’s market.
Why?
Because restaurants that make under $100K net, break even, or lose money are almost impossible to sell in a normal, arm’s-length transaction. Most buyers aren’t looking to “take over your stress.” They’re buying cash flow.
Ask yourself this simple question:
Would you turn over your hard-earned and saved-up money, or go into debt, to buy a business that doesn't make money or actually loses money every month?
If you’re profitable (or close and can prove the path), you’ve got real options.
If you’re not, the best move is often to fix the fundamentals first—before you try to take the business to market.
Let's start with the elephant in every kitchen: Florida's minimum wage hit $15/hour in 2026. That's not a suggestion, it's law.
If you're running a full-service restaurant in Tampa or Brandon, you know what that means:
Here's the problem: Buyers look at your profit margins first. If your Seller's Discretionary Earnings (SDE) or EBITDA is shrinking because labor costs are eating into your bottom line, your valuation drops, fast.
🔴 Red Flag: If your labor costs are now 35%+ of revenue (and climbing), buyers will either lowball you or walk away. They're not buying a "job", they're buying cash flow.
If the cash flow isn't there, neither is the deal.
Be honest: How many 70-hour weeks have you worked this year?
If you've been grinding for 10, 15, or 20+ years in the Hillsborough County restaurant scene, you've earned the right to be tired. But here's what happens when owner fatigue sets in:
Buyers can smell burnout from a mile away. They'll walk your dining room, check your Google reviews, and look at your year-over-year revenue trends. If the momentum is gone, they'll use it as negotiating leverage, or pass entirely.
✅ Smart Move: The best time to sell is when your business is still firing on all cylinders. Don't wait until you're coasting on fumes. That's when buyers lowball you, and you end up leaving $100K–$200K on the table.
Tampa, Brandon, and Riverview are booming, no question. But here's the flip side: every real estate developer in Florida sees the same growth numbers you do.
What does that mean?
If you're in a category that's getting saturated (pizza, wings, fast-casual, family dining), your competitive moat is shrinking. And when differentiation gets harder, valuations get softer.
📍 Local Reality Check:
If you're in a saturated niche, 2026 might be your last year to sell into a market where buyers still see runway. By 2027–2028, the same buyer pool will have more options, and less urgency.
Here's something most restaurant owners don't think about until it's too late: your customer base is aging out, moving out, or changing habits.
Examples:
If your concept was built around a demographic that no longer exists (or is shrinking), you're in trouble. Buyers won't pay a premium for a restaurant that requires a full rebrand to stay relevant.
🧐 Ask Yourself:
If the answer to any of these is "yes," it's time to think about an exit: before the market forces your hand.
Here's the cold, hard math: elevated interest rates in 2026 mean fewer buyers can afford to finance your restaurant purchase.
Why does this matter?
📉 Example:
Let's say your restaurant is worth $500,000 based on a 3.0x SDE multiple.
If you wait until 2027–2028 to sell, you might be fighting a market where buyers have less purchasing power: which means you get less money, even if your business hasn't changed.
Look, I'm not here to scare you. But I am here to tell you the truth:
✅ Population growth in Hillsborough County is still strong (for now)
✅ Consumer spending is steady (but inflation is a wildcard)
✅ Buyer interest is still active (especially for profitable, turn-key operations)
✅ Financing is available (but getting more expensive)
The question is: How long do these conditions last?
If you're a restaurant owner in Tampa, Brandon, or Riverview: and you've been thinking about selling: this is the year to move. Not because the sky is falling, but because the market conditions that favor sellers won't last forever.
By 2027–2028, you could be fighting:
Why take that risk when you can sell now, at peak value, into a market that still has momentum?
I'm Dave Britton, a licensed business broker with Lobo Business Sales LLC and a proud member of both the Business Brokers of Florida (BBF) and the International Business Brokers Association (IBBA).
I specialize in helping Hillsborough County restaurant owners exit on their terms: with maximum value, confidentiality, and zero drama.
I'm not here to pressure you. I'm here to give you the straight truth about what your restaurant is worth, who's buying in 2026, and how to position yourself for the cleanest, most profitable exit possible.
📞 Let's talk. No obligation. No games. Just a real conversation about your options.
👉 Call me today: (813) 395-9552
🌐 Or visit: LoboBusinessSales.com
Here's what I'm offering every Hillsborough County restaurant owner who's serious about exploring an exit in 2026:
✅ A confidential business valuation (no online calculator nonsense: this is a real, licensed broker analysis, completed in a Professional Business Broker Price opinion with supporting comparable sales.)
✅ A 30-minute strategy session where we map out your timeline, your goals, and your best path forward
✅ A no-pressure conversation about what's happening in the Tampa restaurant market right now
You've put everything into this business. Don't leave money on the table because you waited too long or went in blind.
Let's make 2026 your best exit year.
📞 (813) 395-9552
🌐 LoboBusinessSales.com